Based on today’s news of Ted Steven’s indictment and the current GOP field. Congressional Quarterly has changed their rating of the race to “Lean Dem.”
The Democrats’ recruit to take on Stevens, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, found himself on even stronger footing July 29 when Stevens was indicted for allegedly concealing benefits he received from employees of Veco Corp., an Alaskan oil services company. Stevens, 84, who has served in office longer than any GOP senator in history, faced generally easy re-election contests throughout more than six terms in office, but his connection to the Veco Corp. scandal has left him with little hope of regaining his stature in the state prior to this year’s elections. The primary is August 26, and other Republican contenders include David Cuddy, a wealthy real estate developer who lost to Stevens in the 1996 GOP primary after spending more than $1 million in personal funds, and five lesser-known candidates including Republican minister Gerald L. Heikes.
I tend to agree. The GOP brand is now mud in Alaska. Gov. Palin has a 6 month child with Down’s syndrome and is not likely going to want to commute between Alaska and DC. Lt. Gov. has committed himself to the House race. And surprisingly the Republican bench in the state is very weak, as though they expected Stevens and Young to rule forever. Vic Vickers and Dave Cuddy each have a lot of money and could just as easily spend it against each other as spend it against Stevens. Would I prefer to run against Stevens? Yes. But regardless, Mark Begich now runs with a leg up in the race.
I’d keep it at tossup until developments sort themselves out. It’s Alaska we’re talking about. I still have trouble being overly optimistic about our strength there regardless of hoe much the repubs screw things up.
Congressional Quarterly’s rating are so conservative (they’re afraid to be wrong) that to believe any of their ratings isn’t worth it. They’re analyzing of individual races is based on ridiculous hypothesis at best and not based on other major factors:
– registration increases
– incumbent’s close races
– district performance on state and federal level
– money raised by challengers